River Rock Entertainment Authority

As I told you before, if the word “Authority” is in the name, chances are, things are pretty screwed up. However, like I told you before, it is hard for an authority to go into bankruptcy. If it does, it will take a government or two along with it. This authority is rated “B2” by Moody’s and “B-“ by Standards and Poor’s. At least they are not rated “C” to “CCC” so it is not ready for insolvency yet, according to the rating agencies. I also own the bonds of this authority.

Let’s say that you would buy this bond on May 1, 2011 and kept it to maturity on Nov. 1, 2011.

You would make the following from each bond purchased.

1. In appreciation, you would make $63.75.
2. In interest, you would make $48.75.
3. Total return would be $112.50 on an investment of $936.25 in 6 months.

That is an annualized return of 24.032%.

River Rock Entertainment Authority operates as a governmental instrumentality of the Dry Creek Rancheria Band of Pomo Indians of California, a federally recognized Indian tribe. The company owns and operates the River Rock Casino, a gaming and entertainment facility located in Sonoma County, California. It offers slot and video poker gaming machines, house banked table games, poker, food and beverage offerings, and goods for sale in vending machines.

As of December 31, 2009, the company operated 1,212 slot and video poker gaming machines, 18 table games featuring Blackjack, Three Card Poker, Mini Baccarat, and Pai Gow Poker, and 6 tables featuring Texas Hold’em Poker. River Rock Entertainment Authority was founded in 2003 and is based in Geyserville, California.

If you want to know more about the company visit their website.
http://www.riverrockcasino.com/

Here is a report from Bloomsburg Business Week

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=9682060

Gambling in Bankrupt Companies

Many people gamble when it comes to buying bankrupt companies. It is best to stay away from stocks of bankrupt companies. What you want to do is buy securities as high up the chain of capital instruments that you can. In most chapter 11 cases, the new company comes out of bankruptcy with a new capital structure. The old stockholders stock is worthless. The bondholders are given new stock in the company. In some cases, they are given stock as well as bonds. I was involved in one such case in the year 2008.

I had bonds in a Canadian Lumber Company that was a victim of the Great Depression of the 21 Century. When the company came out of Chapter 11, they gave me both stock and bonds in the new company that equaled $1,000 per bond that I had in the old company. I invested about $650 per bond and I received some interest before the company filed Chapter 11.

This is what that investment looks like today. AINSWORTH LUMBER SER 144A 11% of 07/29/2015 value as of March 8, 2011, $612. 167 shares of AIMSWORTH LUMBER Co. LTD COMPANY sold at $3.326 value $555.37 The total of my $1,000 per bond investment on March 8, 2011 is $1,167.37 per bond. I get an 11% return on my new bond. But it is not all glory fishing in the bankruptcy pond. It is up to the courts to give you a good return on your investment as well as the market place. A bankruptcy settlement may happen as soon as a year from filling or as long as 10 years from filing. After settlement you may get nothing or less than what you put into the investment. The new securities may not have a secondary market for years. That is the risk. The worst bankruptcy that I ever got into was Wheeling Steel Corporation where I came out even over a three year period.

A company that is in bankruptcy and has a good chance of coming out ahead is Great Atlantic and Pacific Tea Company (A&P). GREAT ATLANTIC & PAC TEA INC 9.12500% 12/15/2011 SR NT sells for $350 per $1,000 bond. Who knows when it will come out of bankruptcy and in what structure? It is a gamble!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-08/blockbuster-a-p-tribune-bankruptcy-audio.html

Listen to the legal opinion of a Bankruptcy Attorney discussing the A&P Case above. If you are going to invest in A&P, you have to figure out if you want to bet on the company going out of business or if you want them to recover. If you want them to go out of business, you better buy the highest bond debt that you can get. Mortgage bonds are paid first, then Notes, then debentures.

Speculating in Gambling

You know if I put gambling and speculating in the same sentence then you know up front that it is high risk. On the other hand, if it works out, you can be rewarded. Since we are talking about corporate bonds, you know that the risk that we are talking about is limited to the money that you put into the investment. The bond is;

MOHEGAN TRIBAL GAMING AUTHORITY 6.87500% of 02/15/2015

It is rated as a Standard and Poor’s “CC” and a Moody’s “CAA3” Bond.

As of March 8, 2011, the price of the bond was $720.00. The bond gives $68.75 in interest per year. The bond matures on 02/15/2015. I am too lazy to calculate the interest from today’s date. So let’s say that you bought the bond at $720 on Aug. 15, 2011 and kept the bond until maturity. This is what you would get.

1. From August 15, 2011 to February 2015, you would get an appreciation of $280 per bond.

2. You would make $240.63 per bond in interest.

3. That means that your appreciation of $280 plus your interest of $240.63 would give you a total return of $520.63 on a $720 investment. That is a “Yield to Maturity” of 20.66% yearly for 3.5 years.

Bond Ratings:

BBB: An obligation rated 'BBB' exhibits adequate protection parameters. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.

BB, B, CCC, CC, and C: Obligations rated 'BB', 'B', 'CCC', 'CC', and 'C' are regarded as having significant speculative characteristics. 'BB' indicates the least degree of speculation and 'C' the highest. While such obligations will likely have some quality and protective characteristics, these may be outweighed by large uncertainties or major exposures to adverse conditions.

BB: An obligation rated 'BB' is less vulnerable to nonpayment than other speculative issues. However, it faces major ongoing uncertainties or exposure to adverse business, financial, or economic conditions, which could lead to the obligor's inadequate capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.

B: An obligation rated 'B' is more vulnerable to nonpayment than obligations rated 'BB', but the obligor currently has the capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation. Adverse business, financial, or economic conditions will likely impair the obligor's capacity or willingness to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.

CCC: An obligation rated 'CCC' is currently vulnerable to nonpayment, and is dependent upon favorable business, financial, and economic conditions for the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation. In the event of adverse business, financial, or economic conditions, the obligor is not likely to have the capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.

CC: An obligation rated 'CC' is currently highly vulnerable to nonpayment.

C: A 'C' rating is assigned to obligations that are currently highly vulnerable to nonpayment, obligations that have payment arrearages allowed by the terms of the documents, or obligations of an issuer that is the subject of a bankruptcy petition or similar action which have not experienced a payment default. Among others, the 'C' rating may be assigned to subordinated debt, preferred stock or other obligations on which cash payments have been suspended in accordance with the instrument's terms or when preferred stock is the subject of a distressed exchange offer, whereby some or all of the issue is either repurchased for an amount of cash or replaced by other instruments having a total value that is less than par.

Operation of the Authority

The Authority is an instrumentality of the Mohegan Tribe of Indians of Connecticut, or the Tribe, a federally-recognized Indian tribe with an approximately 507-acre reservation situated in Southeastern Connecticut, adjacent to Uncasville, Connecticut. The Authority has been granted the exclusive power to conduct and regulate gaming activities on the existing reservation of the Tribe, including the operation of Mohegan Sun, a gaming and entertainment complex that is situated on a 185-acre site on the Tribe’s reservation. Through its subsidiary, Downs Racing, L.P., the Authority also owns and operates Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs, or Pocono Downs, a gaming and entertainment facility offering slot machines and harness racing situated on a 400-acre site in Plains Township, Pennsylvania, and several off-track wagering facilities located elsewhere in Pennsylvania.

The Tribe’s gaming operation at Mohegan Sun is one of only two legally authorized gaming operations in New England offering traditional slot machines and table games. Mohegan Sun currently operates in an approximately 3.1 million square-foot facility, which includes Casino of the Earth, Casino of the Sky, Casino of the Wind, 100,000 square feet of retail space, including The Shops at Mohegan Sun, a 10,000-seat Mohegan Sun Arena, a 350-seat Cabaret Theatre, a 300-seat Wolf Den, 100,000 square feet of meeting and convention space and the approximately 1,200-room luxury Sky Hotel Tower. Pocono Downs offers approximately 2,500 slot machines and electronic table games, several dining options, including two fine dining restaurants, a casual dining 300-seat buffet and a quick-serve dining area, six retail outlets, three bars/lounges and a bus passenger lounge. More information about the Authority and its properties can be obtained by visiting mohegansun.com, mohegansunpocono.com or mtga.com.

Authorities "Screw Up!"

If you know anything about the City of Harrisburg, Dauphin County Pa., and the Harrisburg Authority problems, then you know that an authority can “screw up” something terrible, be insolvent, and still stay in business, paying its bonds. MOHEGAN TRIBAL GAMING AUTHORITY is such a “screw up.” That is why I own the bond.

Where is Darnell's Portfolio compared to the Dow

At the end of month 26, Darnell’s IRA portfolio has grown 97.88% since January 30, 2009. It has grown 10.78% Year to Date. That means 37.38% of this year’s growth so far has been in interest given by the bonds of the portfolio.

The Dow has moved up 6.02% this year and is doing its best in 12 years. Year to Date without a contribution, my portfolio is up 4.08%.

Investing in Junk Bond Leasing Companies

The INTERNATIONAL LEASE FINANCE CORPORATION (ILFC) team develops, negotiates, executes, and closes complex transactions from traditional operating leases and fleet renewals to structured financings. Driven by operating and cost efficiencies, many airlines acquire new aircraft through leasing rather than shoulder the burden of direct purchase. Increasingly, as airlines consolidate, grow larger and focus on core competencies, there has been an ever-deepening trend toward leasing, even within the world’s largest airlines. In the near future, ILFC expects that half the world fleet will be leased.

With a diverse portfolio approaching one thousand modern Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft, ILFC is uniquely positioned to address the growing demand for aircraft leasing by offering the most cost-effective and flexible options in the business. Among the world's largest airline lesser with 500 or more aircraft in their fleets, ILFC is distinguished by its ownership of one of the youngest, most advanced leasing fleets in the world.

It is safer to buy the bonds of this leasing company than to buy airline stocks or stock in finance companies. Speculators can make more money in stocks but I rather make it slowly with bonds. This is why I have the following bond in my portfolio.

INTERNATIONAL LEASE FIN CORP 6.20000% 04/15/2014 FR
Has a S&P Rating of BB+, sold on March 3, 2011 for $988.36.

This means if you would buy the bond and settled your transaction on April 15, 2011, you would make the following by maturity day on April 15, 2014;

Your bond appreciation would be $1,000 minus 988.36 or $11.64.
But your interest would be 3 years times $62.00 or $186.
Your appreciation plus your interest equals $197.64.

Over three years; you would make $197.64 on a $988.36 investment. That is a total return of 20% over three years or 6.67% per year.

Did the Japanese Multi Disasters’ Bomb Darnell’s Portfolio?

On the close of Thursday March 17, 2011, it looked like the Japanese calamity was going to take the world’s stock, commodity, and bond markets straight into the toilet. In my opinion, as long as this series of disasters is not repeated, the worlds markets will recover rather quickly.

As of the close on Thursday, the Dow was up “Year to Date” only 1.70%. It did recover from a negative number earlier in the week. My portfolio is design to with stand a major bear market. A small correction does very little to affect my investments. My portfolio is up 2.44% “year to date.” When you add in my yearly contribution to my IRA, it is up 9.20%, “year to date” and 94.85% since the end of January 2009.

Let me warn you!

I do see a danger. The Libyan problem is totally out of hand. The west is driven by the need to keep the oil tap running. There is a true uprising against the leadership in the Arab and Muslim world. I would not be rejoicing about all this if I lived in the West. You take out the leadership in the Arab world and then you have to think about who will replace it.

Remember, before World War I we had the Kiser leading Germany, a Czar leading Russia, and a Hapsburg family leading the Austrian-Hungarian Empire. After World War I everything was changed. The new European Leaders went right into rearming and fighting World War II. This re-alignment in the Arab and Muslim World might lead us right into World War III. This time, no Atlantic Ocean will protect the United States this time. Everyone has access to missiles, bombers, and bombs. Nuclear bombs, the size of suit cases are a reality. Many suicide killers would love to use them. So no one on Earth will be safe in the next World War.

ABC Analysis of the National Debt

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The US Treasury Department updated how much the United States is in debt to China and found that it is far more indebted to China than originally thought. As of March 1, 2011, the revised figures indicate that China is holding upwards of $1 trillion of US debt.



Now, the US Government says China held $1.160 trillion in Treasury securities such as agency debt, bonds and notes.



Including equity and asset-backed securities, China held $1.611 trillion in US securities assets, up from $1.464 trillion in June 2009.

Before March 1, 2011, this is what the US Government said concerning who was holding US Debt.



1. Federal Reserve and Intragovernmental Holdings
US debt holdings: $5.351 trillion or 42.942% of US Debt That’s right, the biggest holder of US government debt is actually within the United States. The Federal Reserve System of banks and other US intragovernmental holdings account for a stunning $5.351 trillion in US Treasury debt. This is the most recent number available (Sept 2010), and marks an all-time high.

2. Other Investors/Savings Bonds
US debt holdings $1.458 trillion or 11.700% of US Debt With the most recent numbers from Sept 2010, this extremely diverse group includes individuals, government-sponsored enterprises, brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts, estates, savings bonds, corporate and non-corporate businesses for a total of $1.458 trillion.

3. China
US debt holdings: $895.6 billion or 7.187% of US Debt The largest foreign holder of US Treasury securities, China currently holds $895.6 billion in American debt, although it is down from all time highs of $929 billion one year earlier in November 2009.

4. Japan
US debt holdings: $877.2 billion or 7.040% of US Debt A major US trade partner, Japan holds a huge amount of American debt, and has traditionally been one of the US's largest debt holders, currently owning $877.2 billion of treasury securities.

5. Pension Funds
US debt holdings: $706.4 billion or 5.669% of US Debt Pension funds control large amounts of money, reserved for personal retirements, and thus are obligated to make relatively safe investments. This group includes both private and local government pension funds, totaling $706.4 billion. The private pension fund category also includes US Treasury securities held by the Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan "G Fund."

6. Mutual Funds
US debt holdings: $637.7 billion or 5.118% of US Debt According to the Federal Reserve, mutual funds hold the fifth largest amount of US debt compared to any other group, although mutual fund holdings have diminished by nearly $130 billion since December 2008. Including money market funds, mutual funds and closed-end funds, this group of investments manages approximately $637.7 billion of US Treasury securities as of June 2010, which are the most recent numbers available.

7. (Tied) State and Local Governments
US debt holdings: $511.8 billion or 4.107 of US Debt US state and local governments have over a half-trillion dollars invested in American debt, according to the Federal Reserve. That's the same amount of US debt held by the United Kingdom. The level of investment has remained very stable over the past three years, moving within the range of $534.7 billion and $550.3 billion from 2006 to 2009, and although the amount has been increasing, the total value of holdings is off the highs. However, this number does not include an additional $174.5 billion of holdings of treasury notes in state and local government pension funds.

7. (Tied) United Kingdom
US debt holdings: $511.8 billion or 4.107% of US Debt Britain currently holds $511.8 billion in US debt. The country has ramped up its debt throughout 2010, rising from $208.3 billion in January to the most recent November numbers, which have the holdings up approximately 246% during the year.

9. Depository Institutions
US debt holdings: $269.8 billion or 2.165% US Debt As of June 2010 (the most recent numbers currently available), the Federal Reserve Board of Governors lists depository institutions as holding approximately $269.8 billion in US debt. This group includes commercial banks, savings banks and credit unions and has nearly

10. Insurance Companies
US debt holdings: $261.8 billion or 2.101% US Debt According to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, insurance companies hold $261.8 billion in Treasury securities. This group includes property-casualty and life insurance firms

11. Oil Exporters
US debt holdings: $210.4 billion or 1.688% of US Debt Big oil means big money... and big investment into US debt. Included in the group of oil exporters are Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.

12. Brazil
US debt holdings: $184.4 billion or 1.480% of US Debt The South American economic giant has $184.4 billion in holdings, according to the Treasury. Brazil’s investment into US debt has been fluctuating slightly over the past two years, but this current level represents an all-time high for the country.

13. Caribbean Banking Centers
US debt holdings: $146.3 billion or 1.174% of US Debt The US Treasury identifies this group as institutions in the Bahamas, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles, Panama and the British Virgin Islands. Holdings are currently listed at $146.3 billion, down about $20 billion from 2010's high of $166.3 billion in May 2010. The group's all-time high of $213.6 billion was reached in March 2009.

14. Hong Kong
US debt holdings: $138.9 billion or 1.115% of US Debt. Hong Kong is one of the world's largest holders of US debt; although in 2010 the region has cut its holdings by approximately $8 billion from January levels.

15. Canada, Taiwan, and other countries hold the rest of US Debt holding about $3 Billion or 2.407% of US Debt.

As long as the people of the United States hold 2/3 of the National Debt, the US will have a chance for low unemployment. The reason why the US has high unemployment and it will not improve is because the people of the United States hold less than 50% of their own debt.

How is Darnell doing in this market correction?

My portfolio is up 2.55% while the market is up 3.52% at the end of the close on Thursday March 10, 2011. The market measured by the Dow Jones Averages is in a market correction. I am gaining on the profits of the Dow. This shows that my strategy of maximizing my investment and minimizing my risk is a sound Investment Strategy.

Who is reading the Blog?

In the past month, here are the top 12 countries reading the blog from highest in numbers to the lowest;

1. United States
2. Slovenia
3. South Korea
4. Russia
5. Poland
6. Canada
7. United Kingdom
8. Ukraine
9. Hungary
10. Chile
11. China
12. Germany

Why I am careful with oil!

Picture of Darnell L Williams running his lawn business at age 18.

On March 5, 1968, gas sold for 27 cents a gallon. I just got gas today March 5, 2001 for $3.49 per gallonWhen I started working, gas sold for 29 cents a gallon. Then came the end of the Vietnam War and the gas lines that the media blamed on the Arabs. That started the negative talk about the Arab World in this country. Next thing you know, we were bombing and shelling Arab Countries, calling them terrorist.

Then the Iraq Wars started and we find ourselves taking over Arab Oil fields.

People do not know that US Oil Field Production peeked in 1970. World Oil field Production peeked in 2001. Demand for oil is going up while the world supply of oil is going down. So prices must go up over time. This is why I have always bought cars giving good gas mileage.

The problem is, the United States runs on oil. Without Oil, the American economy would collapse. We can’t move away from oil because the people who run this country are controlled by oil interest.
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http://dieoff.org/page116.htm

Take a look at this chart created by Campbell and Laherre, Petroconsultants Pty. Ltd., created in 1995. The report, written for oil industry insiders and priced at $32,000 per copy, concludes that world oil production and supply probably will peak as soon as the year 2000 and will decline to half the peak level by 2025. Large and permanent increases in oil prices are predicted after the year 2000. I I said, production peeked in 2001. But this prediction failed to account for an increase in Third World oil usage by China, India, and the rest of the third world. So world wide oil supply will be depleted sooner than predicted.

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http://zfacts.com/p/35.html
Are you ready for another round of gas price increases? As the United States comes out of depression, (yes, depression), the public and industry will use more gas and oil. So will India, China and the rest of the world because they will produce more goods and services that use gas and oil. Even if OPEC increases world production, with aging oil wells, one day, they will not be able to keep up with demand. The price of oil and in turn the price of gas must go up because supply of oil must fall and the demand for oil must rise.

With limited energy; the world economy will have movements toward prosperity followed by periods of economic collapses for countries that have high labor cost and the greatest need for oil.
So what investments should you look for?

Corporate Junk Bonds are the safest investments. But Corporate Junk Bonds do not have the chance of making the most money. That lies with stocks. But in an economy that rises and falls sharply without warning, stocks carry the biggest risk.

I have been investing heavily in VENEZUELA REPUBLIC NOTES 8.500% 10/08/2014.

Venezuela is in South America but is a member of OPEC. This bond has a “BB-“S&P Rating. The reason why is because most American Capitalist don’t like the leader of Venezuela. But who is going to boycott buying Venezuelan Oil?

If this bond is bought on April 8, 2011 and kept until it matured, you make the following;

1. Bond bought at $867.50 and on October 8, 2014, you receive $132.50 at maturity.
2. The bond will give $85 per year, $42.50 twice a year (Oct 8 and April 8) until maturity or $340 received over 8 payments until and including maturity.
3. That would give you a total per bond of $472.50 over 3 years and 6 months on an $867.50 investment.

If the country and its oil company would go bankrupt in this amount of time, you may loose some money.
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How is Darnell's Portfolio doing?

"Year to Date," the stock market measured by the Dow is up 5.96% as of Thursday March 3, 2011. My portfolio made up of 95% Junk Bonds is only up 2.47%. For the past 26 months, it is up 82.85%. If the stock market continues to go up this year, it should out perform my portfolio for 2011. I am looking for at least a 10% return on my money but no more than 15% by the end of the year.

Using Your 401K Money with No Penalty

http://www.ehow.com/video_4981362_401k-ira-differences.html

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What is the difference between a 401K and an IRA ?

You can rollover an IRA from one account to another at any time, but if you are a victim of a corporate layoff, or considering changing jobs or about to retire and you are thinking of rolling over or contemplating withdrawal of funds from your 401k plan, then you have several options depending on your age, provided you are no longer working for the employer providing the 401k plan.

I have been laid off from Several employers. Since my first layoff in 1985, I transferred my 401K to a Self Directed Rollover IRA and invested the money into Discounted Corporate Bonds.

http://www.ehow.com/video_4992741_accessing-contributions-emergency.html

Your 401k withdrawal options are as follows if you are under 59 ½

The above video explains if you have an emergency, what you can do with your 401K. You can take a lump sum distribution, in which case your 401k plan provider will write you a check for the value of your account less a 20% withholding tax mandated by the IRS, and a 10% withdrawal penalty. The 20% tax that is withheld, but NOT the 10% penalty, will be counted against your income tax payable or will be counted towards any refund due for the tax year when you file your tax return.

The IRS has some 401k penalty free withdrawal exceptions.

You can do nothing and leave it with your previous employer as long as the amount is greater than $5,000. Amounts less than $5,000 will usually be distributed to you, less a 20% withholding tax, regardless of you age. (Check with your plan sponsor or employer for more details.)

Your 401k withdrawal options are as follows if you are over the age of 59 ½ but under 70 ½:

If you take a lump sum distribution, in which case your 401k plan provider will write you a check for the value of your account less a 20% withholding tax mandated by the IRS. The 20% tax that is withheld will be counted against your income tax payable or will be counted towards any refund due for the tax year when you file your tax return.

You can do nothing and leave it with your previous employer as long as the amount is greater than $5,000. Amounts less than $5,000 will usually be distributed to you regardless of your age. (check with your plan sponsor or employer for more details.)

Your 401k withdrawal options are as follows if you are 70 ½ or older.

If you take a lump sum distribution, in which case your 401k plan provider will write you a check for the value of your account less a 20% withholding tax mandated by the IRS. The 20% tax that is withheld will be counted against your income tax payable or will be counted towards any refund due for the tax year when you file your tax return.

You can leave it with your employer 401k plan but start taking the required minimum distribution.

You can do nothing and leave it with your previous employer as long as the amount is greater than $5,000. In this event, you will be taxed 50% of the required minimum distribution. If the amount is less than $5,000 per 401K account, the money will usually be distributed to you regardless of your age. (Check with your plan sponsor for more details.)

No matter what, you still have to take the required minimum distribution even if you roll it over to an IRA.