Part 3: My Financial Affection for Suze Orman

                       Suze Orman on Investments

Suze and I are talking about bad advice and how to recognize some of it.

Don't Buy It: "Purchase whole life insurance for a better value."

"Life insurance comes in two basic flavors: term insurance and whole life insurance. With the former, you're buying only insurance; the latter also includes an investing component, which makes it more expensive. The premium cost of a whole life policy is going to be much higher than that of a term policy. This would be justifiable if you were getting a great investment deal. But you really aren't—when you consider all the embedded fees."

Here is my opinion: Insurance should be used to protect assets from loss. It is not a good investment. In my opinion keep insurance and investment separate. Never put a whole life policy or any other insurance policy in a 401(k) or IRA.

Suze has an Idea: “As far as I'm concerned, life insurance should be about life insurance, not investing. Reserve that for your 401(k) or IRA, and invest on your own through low-cost exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or no-load (commission-free) index mutual funds.”

Don't Buy It: "Stocks are too risky; play it safe with bonds."

"It's true that stocks are riskier than bonds and that, recently, bonds have produced better returns than stocks. But "recently" is the past; investing is all about the future. When interest rates are as low as they are today, the future is likely to be less profitable for bond investors; the value of bonds goes down when formerly low rates go up. And with the current interest rate on the ten-year Treasury Note at only 1.5 percent, there's virtually nowhere else for them to go. (To be clear, 1.5 percent isn't normal. Before the financial crisis, the same ten-year security paid an interest rate of around 5 percent.)"

"As for stocks, before you assume they're too much of a roller-coaster ride, don't forget about inflation—another word for the fact that over time, the price of stuff rises, on average about 3 percent a year. You need your long-term investments, like retirement money, to earn at least that average percentage so that when you retire you can afford the same standard of living you have today. Stocks have the best chance of earning inflation-beating returns."

Here is my opinion: I was told by one of my readers that I am biased against all investments except Corporate Bonds. They claim that there are other investment vehicles out there. I told my reader that I do not call my blog, “Bond Investments” for nothing.

Here is where Suze is wrong. I suggest that people with 401(k), 403(b) should invest in individual Corporate bonds with an S&P ratings from B+ to BBB+, if the plan allows purchase of individual bonds. If not, I would invest in bond funds that invest in such securities. For IRA investors, I would only invest in S&P ratings ranging from B+ to BBB+ bonds. Short term money (to be withdrawn in 1 year or less) that you will use in your retirement account should be in cash. This is the "day to day" money that you will live on in the following year. High Yielding Bonds have inflation rate protection as high as 7% or 8%.

Keep in mind, all investment advice is not good investment advice. People who talk about investing in stocks for the long term set aside the historical facts about stock investments. In good investment times stocks do go up faster than inflations. But when the bear market comes, it takes your hard earned money with it. The market does not care if you are to retire 30 years from now or 3 years from now. No bell rings with the market direction changes. The stock market will take your money regardless!

Suze has an Idea: Keep some of your long-term investments (money you won't touch for at least ten years) in stocks. Consider dividend stocks, which both change in value and pay a portion of a company's earnings to the shareholder, typically on a quarterly or annual basis. Your 401(k) or 403(b) probably offers a stock fund that invests in dividend-paying companies, which include most of those in the S&P 500 Index. The dividend yield for that index market is currently about 2 percent—more than the yield of a ten-year treasury note!

In my opinion, stay with individual high yielding bonds with a S&P rating of B+ to BBB+ as much as possible. They give the best return with the best market risk. They give the greatest inflation and interest rate risk protection.

Both Suze and I agree, in general, be wary of investment tips, even from friends or family. Love doesn't mean having to take their financial opinions as gospel.

Part 2: My Financial Affection for Suze Orman

Suze Orman

Don't Buy It: "Renting is a waste of money."

We are talking about using bad advice Suze Orman recently talked about this in “O Magazine.”

Suze said concerning this bad advice, “Buying a home can of course be a wise investment, especially considering today's record-low mortgage rates. But that doesn't mean choosing home ownership over renting is right for everyone. In some regions of the country, the cost of owning may still be higher than that of renting (to account for total ownership expenses, including property tax and maintenance, my rule of thumb is to add about 30 percent to the base mortgage amount). And while home values may be stabilizing in many parts of the United States, that doesn't mean they're suddenly going to start rising at a fast and furious pace. Over the next five to seven years, you still might not see a home's value appreciate the roughly 8 to 10 percent it would need to simply to cover the costs of relocating (which at the very least include the real estate agent's typical 6 percent commission, as well as movers' fees).”

My opinion, Suze is correct. The major reason in my opinion that home prices have gone up from 1945 to 2008 was because of the baby boom after World War II. GIs coming home had to have some place to live. These children that the GIs made had to go someplace to live. Now that the baby boomers are old and the GIs are dying out, homes are becoming available and home prices are falling. This is one reason why so many people are caught up in “upside down mortgages.” As people age, they do not feel like cutting grass, maintaining a home, or doing the everyday things in a home that they did when they use the home to raise children. This is when an apartment maybe best for the widower or the divorcee.

Are you going to buy the farm?

Suze’s idea: “Do the math carefully before you consider buying. Ask yourself: Do you have any inkling that you'll want to move in the next five to seven years, whether for a job, a fresh start, or a new experience? If so, purchasing a home is not a smart choice. Keep renting until you can commit to settling down for longer, and tune out everyone who says you're throwing away money.”

Withdrawing Your Money after Retirement

You have been reading about me investing in bonds for retirement for years now. Let’s say you turn 65 years old and submitted your retirement paper at your company. You want to start withdrawing your money from your IRA for so much a month. You are counting on your 401K money and your IRA money to meet your retirement needs.

You might have heard that the 4-percent Rule, otherwise known as the “Prudent Man's Rule,” is a safe way of determining your withdrawal rate from stock and bond market accounts during retirement. Well, this may not be true for you. I am going to show you another reason why my IRA is almost 100% in the High Yield Individual Corporate Bond Market.

The 4-percent Rule suggests that you could take 4% to 5% out of your investment accounts per year without risk of depleting the account within your lifetime. Consider our current economic state. Now consider your retirement during this economy.

As a Stock Speculator, where do you and your finances fit in this scenario?

Wade D. Pfau, Ph.D. wrote a paper entitled “Can We Predict the Sustainable Withdrawal Rate for New Retirees?” which illustrates a study that “attempts to predict sustainable withdrawal rates by quantifying whether a 4 percent withdrawal rate can still be considered safe for U.S. retirees in recent years when stock market valuations have been at historical highs and dividend yields have been at historical lows.”

Pfau states, “I find that a regression model using market fundamentals can explain historical MWRs [maximum sustainable withdrawal rates] fairly well, and that the 4 percent rule is likely to fail for recent retirees.”

During the last years that you are an income-earning worker, the events that take place in financial markets become more significant. For example, consider being ready to retire in 2014 but all your money is in stock or bond mutual funds in 2008. That means you probably lost 60% of your retirement at that time. This happened at a critical time because you plan to start using this money in 6 years in 2014. So you are depending on events less than 10 years before retirement for the health of your retirement account. This is why a 100% High Yield bond account (Not High Yield Bond Fund accounts) is the best vehicle to use for your IRA needs.

If you recently retired, you'll need to think about your rate of withdrawal from your accounts and whether you'll be able to continue on that course without “paring back.” But retirees with stock accounts shouldn’t have to depend on this unpredictable strategy for income, because it will never be predictable!

The 4-percent Rule "cannot be considered safe in light of the unprecedented market conditions of recent years." For example; a 3-year CD is yielding 1.35% and a 10-year treasury, 1.89% may be safe as far of business risk but it is not safe due to inflation and interest rate risk.

You don’t have to depend on an unpredictable vehicle like stocks or government guaranteed securities for income in retirement when you can employ a very secure strategy to give you a more guaranteed income stream.

You can keep your High Yield Bonds in your account. A year or two before you approach your retirement date; you can stop investing your interest accumulating in your account, divide your total cash in your account by 12 and give yourself a monthly income ( Money from 1/20xx to 1/20xx). Keep in mind, you still should reinvest your bond principal when the bonds mature so that you can still continue to get income in future years.

What if I am not smart enough or too lazy to do this for myself?

It is up to you to find out what works to your advantage. Talk to insurance companies, investment brokers, Investment Advisors, and banks. But be careful, they work first in their interest and your interest is secondary. For example, you can turn your investments over to someone that deals in Annuities. But they charge hidden fees for their services. Investment advisors do not charge a fee but place you in mutual funds that charge a fee. In my opinion, banks just take our money and charge you.

As Pfau states, “it would be a great pity if recent retirees scaled down their retirement expenditures and lived a more frugal lifestyle only to find at the end that a higher withdrawal rate could have been sustainable.”

If you are in your 60s, the right annuity could be structured with a 6% to 8% income stream and you would still have control of your money. Instead of taking a chance withdrawing a percentage of your account, where income is not guaranteed for life, consider the alternative: a “hybrid” index annuity with 6% to 8% annual withdrawals and guaranteed income for life, income you cannot outlive.

But don’t get hung up on the word, “guarantee.” No one including the Federal Government can guarantee income. Why? Because it is not the amount of dollars that you get, it is the amount of dollars in relation to inflation that matters to you when you have to spend the money for mortgage, rent, or daily purchases for the rest of your life. Remember, prices always go up!  

What if the lady in the blue just retired at a time when she lost 60% of her money.

Risk can cause a retirement calamity in your account.

The chart below shows the last 38 years of stock market performance. Out of the 38 years shown, we only had 10 years of bear markets (shown in negative numbers). But if you are planing to retire when a bear market hits, it can be devastating to your account. This is the market risk that you are taking. If you are in mutual funds, you are also taking the risk that other investors will pull out due to this bear market causing your balance in the fund to fall sharply. The companies in the fund may fall on bad times due to a change in the economy. That happened in 2007 and the market did not react until 2008. But your funds reacted a year before the market decline. This is business risk. Here lies the reason why in 2007 to 2009 employees saw a 60% decline in their retirement savings. These retirement programs, Mutual Fund 401Ks, and Stock/Mutual Fund IRAs still have not recovered from this calamity.  Here is why many retirement programs are in trouble today.   

Dow Stock Performance Guide

Yearly Stock Returns Index

Year ______Price Gain or Loss______ Percent Gain or Loss

1975__________ 236.17 ______________38.32%

1976 __________152.24 ______________17.86%

1977 _________-173.48 ______________-17.27%

1978 __________-26.16 _______________-3.15%

1979 ___________33.73 _______________4.19%

1980 __________125.24 ______________14.93%

1981 __________-88.98 _______________-9.23%

1982 __________171.55 ______________ 19.61%

1983 __________212.09 _______________20.27%

1984 __________-47.07 ________________-3.74%

1985 __________335.10 _______________27.66%

1986 __________349.28 _______________22.58%

1987 ___________42.88 ________________2.26%

1988 __________229.74 _______________11.85%

1989 __________584.63 _______________26.96%

1990 _________-119.54 ________________-4.34%

1991 __________535.17 _______________20.32%

1992 ___________32.28 ________________4.17%

1993 __________452.98 _______________13.72%

1994 ___________80.35 ________________2.14%

1995 _________1282.68 _______________33.45%

1996 _________1331.15 _______________26.01%

1997 _________1459.98 _______________22.64%

1998 _________1273.18 _______________16.10%

1999 _________2315.69 _______________25.22%

2000 _________-710.27 ________________-6.18%

2001 _________-765.35 ________________-7.10%

2002 ________-1679.87 _______________-16.76%

2003 _________2112.29 _______________25.32%

2004 __________329.09 ________________3.15%

2005 __________-65.51 ________________-0.61%

2006 _________1745.65 _______________16.29%

2007 __________801.67 ________________6.43%

2008 ________-4488.43 _______________-33.84%

2009 ________1651.66 ________________18.82%

2010 ________1149.46 ________________11.02%

2011 _________640.05 _________________5.53%

2012_________882.95__________________7.26%

If you feel you still should invest in stocks or mutual funds, consider the risk!

Market Risk

Perhaps the most significant risk an investor faces is overall market risk. Market risk is the risk that every stock incurs simply by being part of the broader market. You can pick a great stock or mutual fund, which does well for a period of time and then falls dramatically as part of an overall market crash. This is what happened between 2007 and 2009.

 Interest Rate Risk

Stock prices tend to fall when interest rates rise, which makes every stock subject to a degree of interest rate risk. This effect is caused by investors shifting money out of equities and into bonds, certificates of deposit, and other fixed income investments, to take advantage of the higher interest rates. This happened as the United States went into hyper inflation between 1976 and 1979. The country did not break the hyper inflation problem until 1982.

Liquidity Risk

Mutual funds do not tell you this. Mutual fund managers can run into a liqudity risk problem that can drain your fund of money. Funds that invest in alien corporations (outside the United States) are subject to this risk. Liquidity risk is incurred particularly when investing in smaller companies and in stocks that are thinly traded. If your fund is looking to sell a thinly traded stock, it may be necessary to reduce the selling price dramatically, particularly if the fund has a large number of shares to sell, in order to find buyers for all the shares. Liquidity risk is always present but may be reduced by investing in large-cap companies and in companies that normally have a large number of shares traded, since the lower the average volume of shares traded, the higher the liquidity risk.

Competitive Risk

All companies have competitors. A company may see its stock rise dramatically in response to the success of a hot new product, only to see it fall to its original level, or even below, should a competitor introduce a product that is preferred by the market. Since successful products always invite competition, investors should be wary of stocks whose price has risen in response to products that can be easily imitated or replicated by competitors. The same is true with mutual funds. A fund may recieve a lot of good press just to recieve bad press in the future or find itself in management problems. Good press causes investors to buy shares in a fund. That causes the funds price to rise. Bad press causes investors to sell shares in a fund causing the fund to fall in price. Investors money will leave the fund if confidence in the fund falls or confidence in a competitive fund raises.

Legal and Regulatory Risk

Many stocks and industry select mutual funds fall in response to legal and regulatory risks affecting the company or companies involved. Product liability suits, such as those brought against drug companies, the tobacco industry, and auto and consumer product manufacturers, can have a dramatic impact on stock and fund prices. In addition, changes in government regulations, such as those affecting the telecommunications industry, or the introduction of new regulations, can negatively impact companies' stock and select funds. Investors should therefore keep abreast of all legal and regulatory developments affecting companies and selcet funds in which they have invested.

Part 1: My Financial Affection for Suze Orman

               Suze Orman of the Suze Orman Show

Suze Orman is the kind of person that you would want to a neighbor. She is warm and friendly. She makes friends fast and she is not bad looking. Besides, she knows about how to make a dollar in investments. But do we agree when it comes to financial advice?

Let’s look at what Suze said in her article in “O Magazine; 5 Pieces of Financial Advice to Avoid at All Costs” and what my opinion is on the subject.

Suze Orman said, “Bad financial information doesn't come only from scammers; even our loved ones can unwittingly steer us wrong. That's why knowing what not to do with your money is often your biggest asset. In general, there are two little words that should set off every body's suspicion meter: Trust me. Anyone who gives you this line—whether a financial adviser or your significant other—is disrespecting you. You should never entrust a money decision entirely to someone else. I know, I know: Sometimes you'd rather pass the buck. But remember, we're talking about your security, your future, your peace of mind. It's one thing to hire an investment adviser to help you choose funds for your IRA, or to cheer lead a spouse as he or she sets up a 529 plan to help pay your child's college tuition. It's quite another to tune out completely.”

“Find an hour or so a month to peruse a personal finance Web site or a magazine like Money or Kiplinger's, which will keep you up-to-date on the basics. The blog at Mint.com is also a great resource, with posts on everything from choosing a mortgage to spotting medical bill errors. By educating yourself in these simple ways, you'll sidestep all sorts of traps.”

I could not have side it better myself. The Holy Bible says that people are destroyed by lack of education. God must have been talking about people who fail to educate themselves in life’s activities such as personal finance.

Don't Buy It: "Your child's college degree is a great investment."

Suze Orman said, “A blanket statement like this is missing a crucial qualifier: An affordable college degree is a great investment. The unemployment rate for Americans 25 years of age and older is a lot lower for college graduates than for those with only a high school diploma (3.9 versus 8.1 percent). But that doesn't mean you should tell your kids to set their sights on any school—regardless of whether it will leave you with a crushing amount of debt. All too often, parents fail to strategies when it comes to paying for education and end up getting off the track to retiring comfortably. Ironically, this does kids a major disservice: If you lack sufficient retirement savings down the line, your children are the ones who'll bear the burden of supporting you.”

As I told you many times before, the objective of a college education is to make a good living. It is not for sending your children off to a 4 year party. I disagree with the parents who send their children off to a high priced college just because their children want to go to that school. My oldest daughter has an Associate, Bachelors, and an MBA. She is in debt to the tune of $30,000. She makes $135,000. She can pay this debt off easily. 

I used a college savings program starting at her birth for the first 2 degrees. I had my children go to a 2 year community College first then transfer to a 4 year college. This cut cost significantly. Others with her educational back ground are in debt to the tune of over $125,000. The children and their parents can never pay off that debt and at the same time maintain a comfortable living.

Suze Orman said, “Think in terms of long-run affordability. (This goes for you and your child, since I firmly believe kids must borrow for school before parents dip into their savings or take out a loan.) Mark Kantrowitz, publisher of FinAid.org, says students should limit their total borrowing to an amount no greater than what they can reasonably expect to earn in their first year of full-time work; borrow more, and the odds of running into payback problems and default soar. Check out typical starting salaries at Salary.com; even if your child doesn't have a specific career in mind yet, it's a great exercise for families to do together, to start getting grounded in post college reality.”

When it comes to financing options, remember that federal Perkins and Stafford loans offer the best deals; private loans are risky and can end up being far too expensive. The maximum Stafford loan amount a dependent student can borrow for all undergrad years is $31,000. Parents who want to chip in should first figure out if they can afford to do so by using the T. Rowe Price Retirement Income Calculator and then look into federal PLUS loans. Finally, your child should apply to at least one public institution; if money is extremely tight, there's also the option of attending two years of community college (whose credits are usually transferable) and finishing at a four-year school.

In my opinion, you will find in most cases, a two year community college degree is a good value when trying to get a four year degree. 

Citizens Utilities Company of Delaware 7.05% of 10/01/2046

This utility company is rated Ba2 by Moody’s, BB by S&P, and BB+ by Fitch. The bond recently sold for $832.50, yielding 8.468% with a yield to maturity of 8.574%. If you buy this bond on Nov. 1, 2013, you would make $2,326.50 in interest per bond plus $167.50 in principal. If you purchase this bond between now and November 1, you will make more money. This bond is an Unsecured Senior Debenture. The CUSIP is 177342AP7, the ISIN is US177342AP79, and the SEDOL is 2134059. The company is a citizen’s utility and is listed on one of the exchanges.

If you are 32 years old, this would be a good bond to buy and hold until age 65. If you are younger, it would still be a good bond to hold. You will problably be over 60 years old when it matures. Even if you are not, you can reinvest the money into another bond near your retirement.


You can find out more about the company in the website below.

http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/citizens-utilities-company-history/

Did you receive America’s wakeup call?

Most people cannot see danger unless it is right in front of them. The Roman Empire never lost a war. If that is the case then why did the Roman Empire dissolve into several different nations?  It was said about Great Britain only 100 years ago that the sun never sets on the British Empire. By 1945, it was disintegrating.  The USSR had one of the best military machines in the world. Their empire ran from the Baltic nations in Europe to the Pacific, taking up all of Northern Asia and part of Eastern Europe. That empire imploded only 45 years after defeating the best land forces Europe ever produced.  All three of these empires collapsed from within. The common denominator was its debt and its ability to raise taxes to pay its debt. Most empires sooner or later have this problem and the United States is next.

Just because your country has nuclear weapons does not mean that you are economically powerful. The USSR had nuclear weapons and they disintegrated. Nuclear weapons are good for threatening other nations but a nation cannot use them. If you destroy another nation with these weapons then who is going to pay for the war? You killed the people and you contaminated the land. So you can’t use them and expect the victims to pay your country for the cost of the war and give your country free labor, land, and goods. Plus the fall out for these weapons will fall over your country and kill your own people, contaminate your land, and cost your country more money in cleanup cost.  

   
What does this mean to you? This means nothing if you have your head in the sand. If you believe that the United States economy is still growing and that your best days are ahead of you then no matter what I say here, you will disagree with. But if you see the writing on the wall, you must start to prepare yourself and your family for what is just ahead of you.   

http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 

How much debt do you think we are in?

At the end of the twentieth century, the United States had a $5 Trillion surplus. The problem, to keep your standard of living, your empire must continue to grow. The United States started on the East Coast of the United States in 1776. It bought the rights to take over part of the land west of the Mississippi. It fought the Mexicans and took over the western part of North America. It bought the right to take over Alaska from Russia. The US went to war against Spain and won the right to control the Caribbean and the Pacific. The Kingdom of Hawaii was the next target.  Then we had WW I and WW II. WW II gave us the opportunity to move into and control Europe and Japan.  At this point, 1945 to 1965, the United States was the riches nation on Earth. It came out of the war twice as rich as what it was at the beginning of WW II.

But that was not good enough. In order for the United States and its empire to continue to increase its standard of living for its people, the nation must continue to expand its control. This is why the United States moved into the Eastern Asian nations in the med and late twentieth century. This is why they moved into the oil rich Arab countries in the twenty first century.  The United States must control natural resources including the world’s oil supply in order to keep the wheels of industry turning.  This is why the United States invaded Iraq and Afghanistan.  But maintaining an emperor that must grow in order to maintain itself can’t be done. One day, that empire will run out of money just like the empires before it.  Here is why the United States had a $5 Trillion surplus 12 years ago that has now turned into a $16 Trillion debt.

If you are old enough, you notice that the standard of living of people in 1968 was better than the standard of living of people in 2008. Have you noticed recently from the way congress is acting that the strategy of spending and giving citizens a tax cut is not working? In 2013, individual taxes will go up regardless of the tax cut congress gave people. Congress is having problems funding disaster recovery projects in this country. Roads, bridges, sewer/water systems, and infrastructure in America are falling down. That is because we have no money but the government still wants to act like we do.  Just because you can borrow money does not mean you can pay for something. One day, the money you borrow will have to be paid back. 

Rome did the same type of business transactions just before people destroyed the place because their needs were not being met. Shortly after that, Rome no longer existed. The provinces governed themselves. You know them as Britain, France, Spain, and Italy to name just a few.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html 

See what countries have higher personal public debt then see what they are saying in the news about these countries. It is not good news. 

This is why I tell you that you must change your way of thinking when dealing with finances. If you do not, you will depend on the government for your medical benefits, living expenses, and food supply.

Open a self directed IRA and buy individual high yield bonds. Save at least 10% of your income for retirement. If you have property, plant your own food. Find ways to cut back on expenses. You do not need the latest junk that you see on TV.

One day and one day soon, the government will not be able to deliver. How congress treated the Northeastern United States the week of New Year should be your wake up call.  

How did I do in 2012 against the big boys?

This is the time of the year when people who have no plans for the future or do not care about the future claim that I am bragging. People who want to learn to create wealth for their future learn from my experiences. As I have been telling my readers of this blog since 2008 and followers of my investment teachings since 1976, buying individual bonds is the way to go when investing for your retirement.


Please don’t get bonds and bond funds confused. Brokers will try to confuse you because they do not make much money off of the purchase of individual bonds. They make money off bond funds. Bond funds do not mature. Bond funds are a collection of bond investments. This type of investment will rise and fall based on business conditions and interest rates. Corporate Bonds will mature at usually $1,000 per bond. If you bought a bond at $800 in 2008 giving $110 per year and it matured in 2012 at $1,000, you would have $440 in interest and $200 in principal per bond.

Your risk with High Yielding Corporate Bonds is only business risk. The exception would be if interest rates and inflation climbed above the rate given by the bonds. In the case I just described, rates would have to claim past 11%. Interest rates today are lower than 3% and inflation is about 2.5%.

This is how my portfolio increased from the beginning of 2009 to the end of 2012;

2009 – 38.99%

2010 – 17.62%

2011 – 15.36%

2012 – 20.882%


  Over 4 years my portfolio increased without counting my contributions, only interest earned and increase in principal minus any losses, +92.852%. Over the past 4 years, the growth of my IRA including contributions and returns have averaged +59.2358% per year. Can you say that about your 401K at work or your IRA?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Yearly Returns;

2009 – 18.82%

2010 – 11.02%

2011 – 5.53%

2012 -- 7.26%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave a total of +42.63%. It averaged +10.6575% per year. The talking heads on the news tell me that is a good return. My four year average is 48.5783% better.

Why is this happening?

This is happening because of slow growth (under 3%) in the United States. All people have to do is follow the baby boom in the United States starting in 1946. The people born from 1946 to 1966 are the people who buy most of the goods and services. They are the reason why we had the housing boom and the stock market boom until 2006. The people born from 1946 to 1966 are now between the ages of 46 and 66. As they age, they will use less goods and services. More homes will become available as they die off. The use of health care will go up.

Governments and corporations will not be able to sustain investments in retirement funds. Look for more organizations to abandon these programs. Some may keep 401K programs while abandoning matching funds provisions in these programs. This is not good for your future retirement needs.

The growth of the United States will stay low as it is today until most of these people die off. This also means that the stock market will not perform well over that same period. Here is the reason why I suggest placing your money in High Yield Corporate Bonds (not bond funds). This is why I tell you to stay away from the stock market and mutual funds when investing for retirement.

Below is the speculative performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is made up of the most popular stocks followed by the Dow Jones Company. It shows how one year you can gain money and the next year you can end up with losses. This is why most people with 401k plans made money in the 20th Century and lost all of their gains in the last 12 years.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Yearly Returns

Stock Performance Guide

Yearly Stock Returns Index

Year ______Price Gain or Loss______ Percent Gain or Loss

1975__________ 236.17 ______________38.32%

1976 __________152.24 ______________17.86%

1977 _________-173.48 ______________-17.27%

1978 __________-26.16 _______________-3.15%

1979 ___________33.73 _______________4.19%

1980 __________125.24 ______________14.93%

1981 __________-88.98 _______________-9.23%

1982 __________171.55 ______________ 19.61%

1983 __________212.09 _______________20.27%

1984 __________-47.07 ________________-3.74%

1985 __________335.10 _______________27.66%

1986 __________349.28 _______________22.58%

1987 ___________42.88 ________________2.26%

1988 __________229.74 _______________11.85%

1989 __________584.63 _______________26.96%

1990 _________-119.54 ________________-4.34%

1991 __________535.17 _______________20.32%

1992 ___________32.28 ________________4.17%

1993 __________452.98 _______________13.72%

1994 ___________80.35 ________________2.14%

1995 _________1282.68 _______________33.45%

1996 _________1331.15 _______________26.01%

1997 _________1459.98 _______________22.64%

1998 _________1273.18 _______________16.10%

1999 _________2315.69 _______________25.22%

2000 _________-710.27 ________________-6.18%

2001 _________-765.35 ________________-7.10%

2002 ________-1679.87 _______________-16.76%

2003 _________2112.29 _______________25.32%

2004 __________329.09 ________________3.15%

2005 __________-65.51 ________________-0.61%

2006 _________1745.65 _______________16.29%

2007 __________801.67 ________________6.43%

2008 ________-4488.43 _______________-33.84%

2009 ________1651.66 ________________18.82%

2010 ________1149.46 ________________11.02%

2011 _________640.05 _________________5.53%


If the economy improves for a few years which in my opinion will be a temporary thing, it may rival what I am doing with individual bonds.